First research report on evidence-based climate change affecting Arabica coffee growing areas calls for immediate action
The first on-the-ground evidence that climate change is already having an impact on the Arabica coffee sector in the East African Highl ands region is shown in a study called “Coffea arabica yields decline in Tanzania due to climate change: Global implications” published earlier this month in Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Journal by the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture, the International Center for Tropical Agriculture, and the University of Witwatersr and.
The study demonstrates that over the last 49 years, there has been a + 1.42 °C increase in night temperatures which has led to Arabica yield decrease of 195 kg/ha. The consequences for smallholders in the region are dramatic as it represents losses of 46 percent. “Coffee yields have declined to their lowest point in years, with many farmers in Tanzania giving up on coffee completely,” says Aless andro Craparo, the main author of the study.
The sensitive Coffea arabica berries need low temperatures to grow well and produce high quality coffee for consumption, which is why they are best suited to the cool tropical highl ands of East Africa, typically between 1000 – 2300 m above sea level. Using data from the northern Tanzanian highl ands, the study verifies for the first time the increasing night time (minimum) temperature as the most significant climatic variable being responsible for diminishing Arabica coffee yields between 1961 and 2012 and proves that climate change is an ongoing reality. The researchers S andro Craparo, Piet van Asten, Peter Läderach, Laurence Jassogne, and Stefan Grab used independent open-access datasets, which confirm that out of many climate variables, night temperature has the greatest correlation to coffee production.
The results of the study projected forward means that without substantial adaptation strategies, the average coffee production in Tanzania will drop to 145 ± 41 kg/ha by 2060. This is approximately an additional 35% loss in yield for the farmer, which could mean a decrease of up to US$28 million in Arabica export earnings for the country.
“The industry is aware of the impact of climate change on coffee production, but they need hard data to prove to regional decision makers, how urgently climate mitigation strategies need to be put in place,” says Dr Piet van Asten, IITA Country Representative in Ug anda and agronomist working on sustainable intensification of cropping systems. “The study is the first of its kind globally providing essential time-series evidence that climate change has already had a negative impact onCoffea arabica yields.” Whereas most coffee research focused on changes in rainfall and mean temperature, this study revealed that minimum temperatures are the biggest threat: the hotter the nights get, the higher the danger for Arabicacoffee production.
Contrary to the typical constraints found in coffee research linked to rainfall and drought stress and the climate projections for future scenarios deriving from it, the observation of minimum temperatures needed for coffee growing leads to clear empiric data and biological relationships–the hotter the nights get, the higher the danger for Arabica coffee production.
At night temperatures of 15 °C and above, the plant’s metabolism starts to change, leading to lower yields and reduced quality, which will have a significant impact on the coffee industries and processors.
The study, which was done under the CGIAR Research Program on Climate, Agriculture and Food Security , and partly financed by funds from the German Federal Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development, BMZ, may give the coffee sector the hard figures required to encourage the public and the private sector to invest in climate change adaptation strategies that will better sustain the industry and the livelihoods of millions of smallholder farmers who depend on it.
For more information:
Andrea Gros, Head of Communication, IITA HQ, a.gros@cgiar.org
Catherine Njuguna, Communication Officer, IITA-Tanzania, c.njuguna@cgiar.org
About IITA, www.iita.org
IITA is one of the world’s leading research partners in finding solutions for hunger, malnutrition, and poverty. Its award-winning research for development (R4D) approach addresses the development needs of tropical countries. IITA works with partners to enhance crop quality and productivity, reduce producer and consumer risks, and generate wealth from agriculture. IITA is a nonprofit organization founded in 1967 and governed by a Board of Trustees. IITA works on the following crops: cowpea, soybean, banana/plantain, yam, cassava, and maize. IITA is a member of CGIAR, a global agriculture research partnership for a food secure future.
About WITS www.wits.ac.za
Wits, a world-class research university in Africa, is renowned for its commitment to academic and research excellence. It contributes to the global knowledge economy and local transformation through the generation of high level, scarce skills and innovative research. At the forefront of a changing society, Wits is an engaged institution, dedicated to advancing the public good. It promotes intellectual communities and attracts talented students, distinguished academics and thinkers from around the globe.
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